The Insights tab of almost any business page shows the same pattern this month. Posts that previously reached two or three thousand people now reach a few hundred, with the same type of photo, at the same time of day, to the same fans.
Many owners initially assumed they had made an error. When they began comparing results, however, the pattern was the same on every page we reviewed. The cause is external: Facebook changed the News Feed in December, and changed it again last week.
We work closely with dive operators in Bali on their digital and social media strategy. For most of them, Facebook is the entire marketing plan, so this change has a significant impact.
Why is Facebook organic reach dropping?
Organic reach is the number of people who see a post without the business paying for it. It had been declining for some time, but in December it fell sharply for many pages. Facebook announced that it would show more "high quality" content in the feed. In practice, this appears to mean news articles and posts from friends, and fewer of the memes and "like this if..." posts on which many pages relied.
Advertising Age then obtained a Facebook sales document that stated the situation plainly: organic distribution of a page's posts was expected to continue declining, and brands should plan on paying.
On January 21, Facebook announced that it would show text-only status updates from pages less often, while giving more space to text updates from friends. Pages that post mainly plain text ("Great diving today!") face a further reduction.
Facebook explains that far more content is posted than anyone could scroll through, so the feed must select, based on what each person appears to value. This explanation is credible. It is also relevant that Facebook is a public company, that its quarterly results were released last night, and that the main development was advertising revenue, most of it from mobile. A page that no longer reaches its fans is a page likely to begin buying ads.
Facebook publishes its official explanations for businesses on its business news pages. We recommend following them, as further changes are likely.
For a small business, the conclusion is clear: free reach on Facebook is ending.
Businesses that spent two or three years collecting likes believed they were building an audience. In practice, they were renting one, and the platform has now changed the terms.
What can small businesses and dive centres do?
We recommend three practices to the operators we work with.
How should a small advertising budget be used?
Allocate it to your best posts, not to every post, since most posts do not justify paid promotion. Publish, wait a day and identify which post people liked and commented on without assistance. That is your indicator. Allocate a small amount to that post, targeting people in the countries your guests actually come from.
This approach lets your fans indicate their preferences, then pays to show the most popular post to more people with similar profiles. Paying to promote a post that generated no interest produces costly results with no return.
Many owners object to this change, having received free reach for years. The concern is understandable. The choice now, however, is between paying a modest amount and becoming invisible.
Why move your fans to a newsletter?
This is the most important recommendation, and the one most often overlooked.
A Facebook fan belongs to Facebook. An email address on your own list belongs to you. Facebook can change its feed again at any time, and the business has no control over that decision. No platform can decide that only a fraction of your subscribers will see your email newsletter.
Every post that performs well is therefore an opportunity to direct people elsewhere: a free guide to the dive sites, the manta season dates or a small discount for subscribers. Anything that gives people a reason to provide an email address is useful. MailChimp offers a free plan that is sufficient for a small list. The process is gradual, with a few sign-ups a week, but within a year the business will have a list that no algorithm can take away.
Why post less often?
Many pages post four or five times a day, because until recently more posts meant more reach. This approach is now counterproductive. Weak posts receive little engagement, and pages that continue to publish them appear to be shown less and less.
One quality photo with a meaningful caption is more effective than five filler posts. A photo of a manta that a guest saw that morning consistently outperforms a stock image with "Happy Monday!" on it. When sharing a link, share it as a link with its preview rather than pasting it into a text update, which is the format Facebook now states it prefers.
What is the outlook for Facebook reach?
We do not expect organic reach to recover. In our assessment, this is the beginning of a trend, and organic reach for pages is likely to continue falling until it is close to zero for most small businesses.
Instagram, which Facebook acquired in 2012, still shows all posts from the accounts a user follows, in chronological order. This is unlikely to remain permanent either. Any platform a business does not own will eventually change its terms. This is not directed at any business in particular; it reflects how these companies generate revenue.
Some businesses may ultimately benefit, because the change requires them to reconsider what they post and why. Businesses that continue unchanged are unlikely to see results. Those that build a list, refine their posts and invest modestly in what works are well positioned.
What do we recommend to dive operators this month?
Remain on Facebook. Your guests are there, planning trips and asking friends where to dive. It is still the first place many people check to see whether a business is open and what the conditions are.
Avoid relying on it exclusively, however. Use it to be found and to communicate with people, then give them a reason to visit your website or join your list, where the relationship belongs to your business.
When a post performs well on its own, that is when paid promotion delivers the best return. Targeting social media ads effectively requires some experience, but the principle can be stated in one sentence: pay to amplify what people already like.