The 2014 prediction lists have been published, and the technology press has reached a consensus: wearables. Google Glass reached its first "Explorers" in the spring at fifteen hundred US dollars a pair. Samsung announced its Galaxy Gear watch in September. Pebble watches are increasingly common. Apple added a fingerprint reader to the iPhone 5s, which is widely expected to lead to payment by phone.
We review these lists from Bali, working alongside dive operators, and the question that concerns us is narrower: which of these trends will make a difference for a small tourism business next year? In our assessment, very few. Those that do, however, could have a significant impact.
Why do mobile payments and online deposits matter?
Of all the trends listed, this is the one we consider most relevant for small tourism businesses.
Taking a deposit for a dive course or a room remains complicated. International bank transfers are slow and incur substantial fees. Card payments on a business's own site require a merchant account and a developer. As a result, many small operators accept bookings without any deposit and absorb the cost of no-shows. Anyone who has worked at a dive centre desk is familiar with the empty seat on the boat.
The fingerprint reader on the 5s is an early indicator. Once people can confirm a payment with a thumb, they will expect to. PayPal already works in most countries, and in some markets newer services such as Stripe are making it much easier for a small business to accept cards on its own website. It is too early to know which company will lead, but we expect payment by phone to move from unusual to standard within a few years.
For a small business, the practical change concerns deposits. When a customer can pay a deposit in two taps while booking, fewer people book and then fail to appear. This benefit alone can cover the cost of the software. For businesses that take reservations without online deposits, we recommend addressing this in 2014. A proper online payment setup on your site costs far less than it did two years ago.
How is video evolving?
This year, short video became a social medium. Vine launched in January, Instagram added video in June and Snapchat added Stories in October. YouTube was already very large, and a growing share of its viewing takes place on phones.
We do not expect this trend to slow. Video is likely to become the main way many people view content on their phones, and phones are where audiences are. Pew's figures from June indicate that 56 percent of American adults now own a smartphone, the first time this share has reached a majority. Most guests visiting dive centres here appear to carry one, usually in a dry bag.
For a dive centre, video has always been a natural fit, since it sells an experience people cannot picture until they see it. The same applies to most small businesses: a restaurant, a guesthouse, a guide, an artisan. Showing the work is more effective than describing it. A production budget is not required; a phone and a regular filming habit are sufficient.
Which technologies can be set aside?
Gadgets that do not solve a customer problem. This covers most of the remaining items on the lists.
Google Glass is a clear example. It receives extensive coverage in the technology press, including articles on how businesses should prepare for customers wearing computers on their faces. This may eventually happen, but it is very unlikely that a guest will enter a dive centre in Bali wearing Glass in 2014, and even less likely that it would change how they book.
Smartwatches follow a similar pattern, though they are probably somewhat more useful, and people may adopt them. We see no small business that needs a smartwatch strategy next year. What they need is a website that works on the phone in the customer's pocket, and many still do not have one.
A simple test applies to all of these technologies: does it solve a problem my customers actually have, such as booking faster, finding the business more easily, paying without difficulty or knowing what to expect? If so, it merits attention. If it is merely new, it is preferable to let larger companies invest in it first. Smaller businesses can adopt it later at much lower cost, if it proves to be important.
What filter should be applied to any technology trend?
- Are my customers already using it, or only technology journalists?
- Does it remove a step between "interested" and "booked"?
- Can I test it at low cost and stop if it does not work?
- Will it still matter if the company behind it disappears?
Which trend deserves attention but is missing from the lists?
None of the lists we have reviewed gives much weight to software becoming more capable with language. In our view, this is a significant omission.
Consider Google's work this year: Hummingbird in September, designed to understand complete questions rather than match keywords; voice search on phones improving to the point that people genuinely use it; and Google Now anticipating needs before users ask. This is machine learning doing substantial work, without fanfare, inside products people use every day. Because it is not a physical product, it does not appear on gadget lists.
We anticipate that over the next few years, software that understands everyday questions will matter more to small businesses than any wearable device. For now, the recommendation is consistent with the rest of this article: write your website the way your customers speak, answer their real questions, and make booking and payment simple. This approach remains effective regardless of which new device emerges.
For objective data on how people actually use technology, as opposed to what the press emphasizes, Pew's internet and technology research is the best free source we know of. We recommend observing your customers rather than the headlines. We wish you a happy holiday season.